The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
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- Author：William Strauss
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Summary
NATIONAL BESTSELLER - "A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future。"--USA Weekend
William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it。 With blazing originality， The Fourth Turning illuminates the past， explains the present， and reimagines the future。 Most remarkably， it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America's past will predict its future。
Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history。 The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles， each one lasting about the length of a long human life， each composed of four eras--or turnings--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order。 In The Fourth Turning， the authors illustrate these cycles using a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period。
First comes a High， a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away。 Next comes an Awakening， a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order。 Then comes an Unraveling， an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions。 Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history。 Together， the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth， maturation， entropy， and rebirth。
The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare， individually and collectively， for America's next rendezvous with destiny。
William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it。 With blazing originality， The Fourth Turning illuminates the past， explains the present， and reimagines the future。 Most remarkably， it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America's past will predict its future。
Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history。 The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles， each one lasting about the length of a long human life， each composed of four eras--or turnings--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order。 In The Fourth Turning， the authors illustrate these cycles using a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period。
First comes a High， a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away。 Next comes an Awakening， a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order。 Then comes an Unraveling， an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions。 Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history。 Together， the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth， maturation， entropy， and rebirth。
The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare， individually and collectively， for America's next rendezvous with destiny。
Reviews
Quentin
，
Fascinating idea - now that it is 20 plus years old I want the updated version
Anda
，
Great book！ Scary accurate predictions for the future。 Written in the 90s these author’s took a real chance to write such a book。 Predictions are based off history。 I’m sold that history does actually repeat its self and we will see many of these things come to fruition in the next decade or so。 At times it gets confusing what generation the author’s are speaking about or what time period they are addressing。 Other than that this was an credibly insightful work。
Ayman Fadel
，
Steve Bannon & Hari Seldon: Psychohistory as a Movement Building Toolhttps://aymplaying。wordpress。com/2021。。。 Steve Bannon & Hari Seldon: Psychohistory as a Movement Building Toolhttps://aymplaying。wordpress。com/2021。。。 。。。more
Darryl
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Essential to understanding where the world sits right now。
Makmild
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The fourth turning。เออ ดีนะ ดีแบบดีมากๆ มันคือหนังสือที่ชวนเรามองปวศ แบบไม่ใช่ linear แต่เป็น season มีขึ้นมีลง （มันก็ควรเป็นแบบนั้นปะวะ） และวนเวียนกลับมาพบกันใหม่ （ที่ไม่ใช่รูปแบบเดิม） พูดถึงเรื่อง generations ต่างๆ เอาไว้เยอะมาก ; history shape generations， and generations shape history。แม้มันจะพูดถึงปวศแองโกลอเมริกาซะเยอะ （ก็ทั้งเล่ม ก็คนเขียนเป็นเมกัน） แล้วบางทีบางช่วงจังหวะมันก็ไม่ได้ตรงกับของไทย （เอาจริงๆ ก็ยังไม่ได้เทียบ ขี้เกียจ） แต่พอมาถึงปัจจุบัน （2021- crisis climax หรือยังนะ） จังหวะม The fourth turning。เออ ดีนะ ดีแบบดีมากๆ มันคือหนังสือที่ชวนเรามองปวศ แบบไม่ใช่ linear แต่เป็น season มีขึ้นมีลง （มันก็ควรเป็นแบบนั้นปะวะ） และวนเวียนกลับมาพบกันใหม่ （ที่ไม่ใช่รูปแบบเดิม） พูดถึงเรื่อง generations ต่างๆ เอาไว้เยอะมาก ; history shape generations， and generations shape history。แม้มันจะพูดถึงปวศแองโกลอเมริกาซะเยอะ （ก็ทั้งเล่ม ก็คนเขียนเป็นเมกัน） แล้วบางทีบางช่วงจังหวะมันก็ไม่ได้ตรงกับของไทย （เอาจริงๆ ก็ยังไม่ได้เทียบ ขี้เกียจ） แต่พอมาถึงปัจจุบัน （2021- crisis climax หรือยังนะ） จังหวะมันก็คล้ายๆ กันทั้งโลกแล้วในกู้ดรี้ด พวกฝรั่งเหมือนจะไม่ค่อยชอบกัน เพราะช่วงต้นๆ ที่อ้างอิงเรื่อง generations เป็นแบบ prophet， nomad， hero， artist มันดันไปโยงกับพวกนิยาย และไม่ได้มีหลักฐานประจักษ์อะไรรองรับขนาดนั้น （หรอ ตอนอ่านไม่รู้สึกนะ） แต่ส่วนตัวชอบทั้งเล่มเลย สนุกดีคือในเล่มเนี่ย มันแยกอายุคนเป็น childhood （0-20） ，young adulthood （21-40） ，mid-life（41-60） ，elder （61-80）， lately elder （80+） （ไม่แน่ใจว่าคำนี้มั้ย） และแต่ละเจเนเรชั่นก็จะมี powers ต่างกันไป เออ เห็นภาพมาก ชอบปล。หนังสืออ่านไม่ยาก ตัวหนังสือใหญ่ดีด้วย 。。。more
Brad
，
Very interesting book。
Rob
，
The overall concept was interesting。 However， it is very white male centric。 To apply a mood or feeling or general state to a period of history is incredibly short sighted。 Noting that post WWII was a period of coming together in America and rebuilding， support with the GI bill etc。 For black American veterans cheated out of the GI Bill， segregated where they ate and blocked from white schools， it was a very different period for them。 This can be applied globally to poor nations and populations The overall concept was interesting。 However， it is very white male centric。 To apply a mood or feeling or general state to a period of history is incredibly short sighted。 Noting that post WWII was a period of coming together in America and rebuilding， support with the GI bill etc。 For black American veterans cheated out of the GI Bill， segregated where they ate and blocked from white schools， it was a very different period for them。 This can be applied globally to poor nations and populations throughout their cycle approach to history。 1492 a year of great exploration…。if you’re not a victim of the genocide involved。 The idea of an overall turning ignores many varying components when your group is the one benefitting and writing history。 。。。more
Jodi Stewart
，
Very interesting book。 If you do pick it up， Google the fourth turning website and get the cheat sheet of the different generations。 The first little bit is kinda confusing without it。 （That was the reason for the missing star）Basic premise: there are four archetypal generations in American history and four “seasons” that history cycles through。The book talks mostly about the current cycle and the generations involved in it。Trigger warnings:1。 It’s pretty accurate about the crisis period of the Very interesting book。 If you do pick it up， Google the fourth turning website and get the cheat sheet of the different generations。 The first little bit is kinda confusing without it。 （That was the reason for the missing star）Basic premise: there are four archetypal generations in American history and four “seasons” that history cycles through。The book talks mostly about the current cycle and the generations involved in it。Trigger warnings:1。 It’s pretty accurate about the crisis period of the fourth turning。 If you’re prone to apocalyptic musings， this might be disturbing2。 It details the stereotypical childhood of each generation， so if you’re bitter about your upbringing， this part might rub some wounds 。。。more
Oren Mizrahi
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boring and a speculative。 i dont know enough about history to judge how accurate this is but some of the evidence he proposed seems dubious。
Adam J Cecchetti
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Lots of stuff right， some things wrong。 Silent， Boomer， X， Millennial Generational analysis was mostly spot on。 How local and state governments would react was wrong。 Otherwise we'll see how long before the US returns to the first turning。 Lots of stuff right， some things wrong。 Silent， Boomer， X， Millennial Generational analysis was mostly spot on。 How local and state governments would react was wrong。 Otherwise we'll see how long before the US returns to the first turning。 。。。more
Lane
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Some interesting concepts。。。but too much cherry picking of the data to confirm his hypothesis。
Dick Heimbold
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The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss， so-called generational historians， is a really bad attempt to reveal truth about American’s destiny that they divined in historical cycles they believe really exist。 Their theory of generational change is based on a repeatable cycle of change every 80 to 100 years— about the length of human lives。 This time period， they call a saeculum， is broken into four approximately 20-year eras called the， High， Awakening， Unraveling and Crisis。 The transition from on The Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss， so-called generational historians， is a really bad attempt to reveal truth about American’s destiny that they divined in historical cycles they believe really exist。 Their theory of generational change is based on a repeatable cycle of change every 80 to 100 years— about the length of human lives。 This time period， they call a saeculum， is broken into four approximately 20-year eras called the， High， Awakening， Unraveling and Crisis。 The transition from one to the next is called a “turning。” So， here’s the bad news: we are in the fourth turning of the current saeculum that began in 1945。 This Crisis Era will extend from 2005 to about 2025。 After that a repetition of the saeculum starting with some major event（s） happen before 2025 that will produce another High。 Of course， we don’t know what is coming。 The authors throw a few clues out though， e。g。， the revolutionary war concluded in 1783， Civil War in 1863， WWII in 1945， each getting worse。 And we may face an even worse war—claim the authors—or alternatively， things may not be so bad。 Either way a new Saeculum starts—and much coverage is devoted to how we have to prepare for a great new worldPeople born in the twenty-year eras are called Prophets， Nomads， Heroes， Artists， respectively。 Andrew Jackson， for example， is an Artist。 Hmm… Also， the author refers to the above people as Silents， GIs， Heroes， Boomers， Gen X， Millenials and thirteeners。 About this point I had to stop and refer to tables on the web site for Author’s business to get straight in my head what they were talking about。 I am not good in discussions where there is more than one name for the same thing。 Is this Saeculum construct science？ Or is it like astrology or alchemy？ I think it is more like the latter， because there is no basis in research or math。 For example: the business cycle has a fair body of work in which math （e。g。 Fournier analysis） has been applied to business parameters to see what the periodicity of business cycles is。 I don’t see any rigor in Howe and Strauss’s methodology。 What I see is them starting with their definition of the cycles and then shoehorning in what they think are appropriate contents for each era and ignoring information that doesn’t fit。 Also， I see bias in their view of American history and destiny。 They seem to approve of Creative Destruction of the government。 Lots of talk of economic collapse （the Great Devaluation）， bankruptcy of social security and private pensions and how to protect against such things。 Almost no discussion of Climate Disaster， Terrorism， Nuclear proliferation and Mass Migrations。 And what to do to prepare for these events？ For example， they suggest getting rid of entitlement spending for people that don’t need it。 They don’t understand how Social Security is financed， and predict its bankruptcy。 They gripe about pop music， trash talk， and bad manners and see an improvement in family life needed to work these issues。This book was written in the 1997。 It projected a Crisis era that began in 2005， with an exit from the crisis era by 2026。 We are in the Coronavirus Pandemic， a crisis of sorts。 Might have to give the authors credit for calling this one。 Nine-eleven happened， but it was still in the unraveling—five years before the Crisis Era。 We’ve got five years to go in the Crisis era and authors have warned of the dark possibility of total war—or maybe not。 They did not warn of the destruction of life by Global Warning looming in the Crisis era or other great threats cited above。 I attribute this omission to the authors biased-to-the-right mindset。 A mindset that just doesn’t think Global Warming is real。 Great deal of discussion about the turning of the fourth Saeculum and what the reader should do to get ready。 “Move with the seasons of the Saeculum。 Don’t try to solve the problems of unraveling while it is still unraveling，” they advise。 Strange Advice。 But as mentioned above they recommend getting one’s portfolio in shape and sheltered against economic shocks。 Could this be fiddling while Rome burns？ What good is a snazzy portfolio if you have just been incinerated？In summary。 I don’t recommend this book。 It is unscientific， biased， and does not address a number of serious problems。 Although it purports to be an approach to do just that by leveraging a magical insight into societal cycles， so we are ready to handle crises when they confront us。 。。。more
Clay
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Some cool food for thought。。 interesting
Bernie Anderson
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I read this book on the recommendation of someone else I read。 Had no real idea what it was about other than it took this "amazing unique paradigm" of history。 As I read I had three primary thoughts: 1。 This is poorly written。 2。 This is poorly researched and doesn't use proper historical research methods （Something I had to us in order to write my Masters dissertation）3。 This is incredibly Ameri-centric and sometimes a little racist。 （The author discounts the native and black American experienc I read this book on the recommendation of someone else I read。 Had no real idea what it was about other than it took this "amazing unique paradigm" of history。 As I read I had three primary thoughts: 1。 This is poorly written。 2。 This is poorly researched and doesn't use proper historical research methods （Something I had to us in order to write my Masters dissertation）3。 This is incredibly Ameri-centric and sometimes a little racist。 （The author discounts the native and black American experience a number of times。）I started skimming because the author repeats himself so much。 As I read the apocalyptic ending I kept thinking -- this sounds like Q-anon conspiracy nonsense circa 1997。 The cyclical theory of history is not unique。 It's been around for a long time。 It's not a "new paradigm" and many historians reject this particular view。 Time and history are too nuanced to force it into patterns。 The author does a lot of forcing。 When I finished - kind of wishing I hadn't wasted the time I did on this - I found out that this is one of Steve Bannon's favorite books。 That explains everything。 This book is bunk。 Don't waste your time。I now feel like I need a shower。 。。。more
Alex Drysdale
，
Powered through this book in one sitting。 Despite being written in '97 it seems even more relevant today。。。 or maybe it's too late。。。It presents the idea of a cyclical history that was identified by the ancient Greeks that showing a relation to all living things that operate in 4 distinct "seasons"。 Spring: Birth - 20， Summer: 20-40， Fall: 40-60， Winter: 60-DeathThis connects the seasons and ages to 4 distinct generations in Western anglo culture that have repeated most clearly and accurately re Powered through this book in one sitting。 Despite being written in '97 it seems even more relevant today。。。 or maybe it's too late。。。It presents the idea of a cyclical history that was identified by the ancient Greeks that showing a relation to all living things that operate in 4 distinct "seasons"。 Spring: Birth - 20， Summer: 20-40， Fall: 40-60， Winter: 60-DeathThis connects the seasons and ages to 4 distinct generations in Western anglo culture that have repeated most clearly and accurately repeated themselves in America， with the Fourth Turning or change between generations resulting in total chaos that completely transforms society forever。 Ex: American Revolution， the US Civil War， the Great Depression leading into World War II。This Fourth Turning happens every 80-100 years and has done so all the way back to the 1600'sThey propose the next fourth turning to start in 2005 and culminate in 2026， and accurately predict a major financial crisis around '05， terrorist attacks involving a plane， and also mention the possibility of a pandemic killing a few people that will be used as an event to grab more power and possibly lead to totalitarianism。 They predict there could be all out war， more despicable than anything ever seen in history。Creeped me out， but made me pay attention。 What can one do to protect themselves against the climax of this Fourth Turning？ 。。。more
Priscilla Flores
，
Well， I read this book。 I took on everything it was saying， but I dont really see any of this happening。 I just think thi ge CAN get bad but not like an all our collapse。 The US seems like a "ill take you down with me" kind of country too。Who knows。 Well， I read this book。 I took on everything it was saying， but I dont really see any of this happening。 I just think thi ge CAN get bad but not like an all our collapse。 The US seems like a "ill take you down with me" kind of country too。Who knows。 。。。more
Briana
，
⏱ Sixty second， no spoiler summaryThe history of society has obvious cycles which flow like seasons: High， Awakening， Unraveling and Crisis。 This book follows along the different cycles we have gone through in American history and aligns the with different generational classifications （Hero， Artist， Prophet， Nomad） and parallels how the different generational type and where they’re in in their lifetime， correlated to the different season we are currently in。 Obviously， based on the title， we are ⏱ Sixty second， no spoiler summaryThe history of society has obvious cycles which flow like seasons: High， Awakening， Unraveling and Crisis。 This book follows along the different cycles we have gone through in American history and aligns the with different generational classifications （Hero， Artist， Prophet， Nomad） and parallels how the different generational type and where they’re in in their lifetime， correlated to the different season we are currently in。 Obviously， based on the title， we are in the Fourth Turning， or fourth season， aka Crisis at the current time。 This book was written before the Crisis began and it’s interesting to compare what we are currently going through to what the author predicted would happen， based on history。👍🏻Turn OnsI loved all the charts and graphs in this book。 It definitely helped add to the book and helped me understand the different timelines。 While I don’t think this turning is following the same outline as predicted， I do see some things that would make me believe we are currently in the fourth turning and hopefully we are moving out of it soon。👎🏻 Turn OffsThere’s a lot of terminology that you have to get familiar with and sometimes I would forget exactly what each turning and archetype was and would have to flip back。 I also wish we had an addendum to this showing how current events fit into this book。 I know it’s older and one of the authors is now dead， but it’s a fascinating subject and kind of freaky that one predicted crisis event was a virus that would lead to a shutdown。👵🏻 Safe to talk about with Grandma？Yes， there is no foul language at all。 This would be a fun one to talk about with different generations and get their perspective。 I also totally see how they say different generational traits tend to skip generations and you can relate to the generation two above you （i。e。 me with my grandma）。⭐Rating ⭐Four stars。 The idea of this book in fascinating but sometimes I found myself zoning out because of the specific terminology used。Title & Author: The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil HoweFormat: PaperbackRead: 7/29/21-8/28/21Rating: Four stars 。。。more
Chris Lake
，
Kind of tough; complicated。 Can't stop thinking about it。 The Cole's notes on this bad boy are sexy AF; actually reading it is a test of will。 Classic history book: + + sowed with names of people you've heard of but don't care about + + + "wait， wtf was that based on？" + *flipping back 20 pages， re-read*That last part - flipping back and re-reading - is a sign that: 1） the genre is hard for me， 2） the book is powerful enough that it's worth trying to understand。 Here's all you need to know: Kind of tough; complicated。 Can't stop thinking about it。 The Cole's notes on this bad boy are sexy AF; actually reading it is a test of will。 Classic history book: + + sowed with names of people you've heard of but don't care about + + + "wait， wtf was that based on？" + *flipping back 20 pages， re-read*That last part - flipping back and re-reading - is a sign that: 1） the genre is hard for me， 2） the book is powerful enough that it's worth trying to understand。 Here's all you need to know: You're fucked。 I'm fucked。 We're all pretty much fucked。 But， like， for the next ten years。 Then it'll be cool again。I love having made it all the way through this before diving into his sequels - and by 'sequels' I mean the 4，000 podcasts from the last two years since the author's popularity has exploded。 They make a bunch of predictions in 1997 and they kind of pretty much turn out。 You gotta check out how they describe our current state in addition to the book。No spoilers。 No actual points to make。 I dunno why I write these。 They've become meandering。 The word 'become' implies they were ever something different。 Anyways， have a nice day。 。。。more
Spencer
，
not sure strauss' main idea of century long cycles is necessarily wrong， but he fails to make a convincing logical case for it in the first 15% of the book that i read which was mostly tedious exploration of the word "saeculum" and highly subjective pseudohistorical interpretation of the last few centuries of global events。 not sure strauss' main idea of century long cycles is necessarily wrong， but he fails to make a convincing logical case for it in the first 15% of the book that i read which was mostly tedious exploration of the word "saeculum" and highly subjective pseudohistorical interpretation of the last few centuries of global events。 。。。more
John
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Looking for the notes get back with me。
G。M。 Burrow
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This book tells the future because it reads the past。 Written in 1997， it predicted the chaos of the 21st century。 They didn’t know exactly what the chaos would look like， but they knew it would come in the early 2000s， they predicted that it would last till about 2025/2030， and the possibilities were a terrorist attack， economic meltdown， a pandemic， and government overreach。 Boom。 2001， terrorist attack。 2008， economic meltdown。 2020， pandemic and government overreach。 And it ain’t over。 This This book tells the future because it reads the past。 Written in 1997， it predicted the chaos of the 21st century。 They didn’t know exactly what the chaos would look like， but they knew it would come in the early 2000s， they predicted that it would last till about 2025/2030， and the possibilities were a terrorist attack， economic meltdown， a pandemic， and government overreach。 Boom。 2001， terrorist attack。 2008， economic meltdown。 2020， pandemic and government overreach。 And it ain’t over。 This book is absolutely fantastic because its insight is so dang encouraging。 Why？ Because we know the crisis is right on schedule。 A crisis hits every 80 years like clockwork。 80 years ago， WWII。 80 years before that， Civil War。 80 years before that， American War for Independence。 And so on back they go， even hopping the continent and continuing back into the misty distance of British monarchs。 It’s an Anglo cycle。 We also know how people will respond to a crisis。 A crisis is a chance to remake the culture。 America was fundamentally different after the War for Independence， the Civil War， and WWII， and not always for the better。 So when the crisis of 2020 has you frustrated or worried， remember that you were born for this moment， God gave it to you， and here is our chance to fight for a new nation—one that remembers God。 On a more personal note， this book made my day because I have always been tempted to long for my grandfather’s war against Hitler。 WWII just seemed like such a more important time to be alive。 With evil that big and the lines drawn so stark， everything people did seemed charged with more significance。 I wanted to go back and join that fight and felt guilty for having missed it。 That’s crazy sauce and bad theology， but there you go。 I slowly learned contentment with my own decade， but then this book came along and made me sit up straight。 This was it。 I’m actually living in a crisis。 This is my WWII。 A crisis comes only 80 years， and my generation has a chance to take advantage of this crisis and fight for what is true and right， just like our grandfathers。 Everything we do now to worship God， fight for our freedoms， and repent of our national sins is charged with significance because however America's current crisis turns out， on the other side we know we will have a fundamentally changed nation。 This is the great turning point of our lives。 We have the chance to make it a D-Day。 。。。more
Kada
，
recommended by Tony Robbins
Barb
，
Hard to read。 Wish the heavily-researched information could have been presented in an easier format。 Better to read this one as a physical book -- not Kindle。
Randall
，
At best， the metanarrative is a quick and dirty shorthand; at worst， it’s a lazy and exclusionary way to try and understand cultural history。The book’s central idea that history moves in cycles is a fine one。 But the necessarily broad brush strokes required to apply a singular， obligatory narrative to the messy and manifold strands of history lead to an incomplete picture。 Those who aren’t embodied by the archetype of a generation or a time are usually explained away in a sentence or two， if at At best， the metanarrative is a quick and dirty shorthand; at worst， it’s a lazy and exclusionary way to try and understand cultural history。The book’s central idea that history moves in cycles is a fine one。 But the necessarily broad brush strokes required to apply a singular， obligatory narrative to the messy and manifold strands of history lead to an incomplete picture。 Those who aren’t embodied by the archetype of a generation or a time are usually explained away in a sentence or two， if at all。 This book is very dry， despite being written in a self-indulgent， pseudo-academic tone。 And while it’s well-researched， it takes leaps and liberties needed to apply neat cycles to American history。 While some of the predictions of the coming tumult of the 21st century seem prescient， they are numerous and vague enough that a few were bound to find their mark。 This book is the kind of Whig historiography of America that could only have been churned out by white boomer dudes who fully benefitted from postwar prosperity。 。。。more
Jean
，
Please do not take this clever-sounding book seriously。 It is simply a prophecy， as the authorsrepeatedly claim。 It is not history， nor does it properly use its historical sources， picking and choosing out of context， any quote or idea from historians， anthropologists， economists or any other published source only that which substantiates their preconceived prediction。No， the Etruscans were not the first or only people to experience cyclical time。 Cyclical time isa part of nearly every major rel Please do not take this clever-sounding book seriously。 It is simply a prophecy， as the authorsrepeatedly claim。 It is not history， nor does it properly use its historical sources， picking and choosing out of context， any quote or idea from historians， anthropologists， economists or any other published source only that which substantiates their preconceived prediction。No， the Etruscans were not the first or only people to experience cyclical time。 Cyclical time isa part of nearly every major religion and natural religion that has been practiced by ancientpeoples。 Western monotheism established linear time， which suits what we have developed as reality based on scientific inquiry， not prophecy or natural religion。 Actual history does notmimic the four seasons or Etruscan ritual or the lifespan of one long lived individual。 History is messy and unpredictable。 The authors cannot claim they found a universal pattern whichonly suits British and American history。 The events characterizing the four generation saeculum they hypothesize are what they， themselves， have experienced in their lifetimes。 You cannot base a credible historical pattern on the events of your own subjective lifetime。The Fourth Turning is just one more apocalyptic prophecy in an era of apocalyptic expectations。 What is different about it is only that it is a systematic rendering of historical events from twoindividuals not known for starting a new religious movement。 Leaders of new religious movements convince their converts by similar seductive prophecies。 One such convert is Steve Bannon。 The creators of The Fourth Turning apocalyptic expectation attract those， like Bannon， who hope for a world shaking， high-casualty， violent global event。 It satisfies their hopes for imminent catastrophe。Read it as science fiction without any credible scientific evidence。 I know。 I am a historian。 It only rates a minus star， but I was not able to provide that under this reviewing algorithm。 Sigh。 。。。more
Will Blasingame
，
A horoscope for doomsday people subject to the same logical fallacies and biases as horoscopes。However， it can provide the same entertainment value of a horoscope and it’s not too long so there’s that I guess。
Zak Boston
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More than two decades later， the prophetic explanations made in this book hold with an eerie profundity。 Very few predictions age so well。 For this reason alone it is worth reading， but the positive undertone， skeptical approach， and explanatory power combine to make a very worthwhile read。 Like other extensions of jungian psychology， this history through demographic attitudes feels， at times， just vague enough to be universal and just specific enough to be apropos。 However， the ideas presented More than two decades later， the prophetic explanations made in this book hold with an eerie profundity。 Very few predictions age so well。 For this reason alone it is worth reading， but the positive undertone， skeptical approach， and explanatory power combine to make a very worthwhile read。 Like other extensions of jungian psychology， this history through demographic attitudes feels， at times， just vague enough to be universal and just specific enough to be apropos。 However， the ideas presented here appear to hold significant explanatory power over key events shaping some 500 years of history in Anglo-America。 From Victorian England to the American civil war to what historical events await us in the 2020s， this theory is clearly unfolding before us as surely as the earth’s orbit and tilt produce seasons。 For other lovers of Jung it will likely feel like reading what you always knew and just couldn’t put into words yourself。 。。。more
Veronica Watson
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3。5 stars This has been an influential book， especially regarding generational theory。 There's a lot in this book that I appreciated and was impressed with and other parts I thought was superfluous， overreaching or grandiose。 What I liked: the recasting of history and time as cyclical and what impact that has on the perceptions of our society and place。 I thought the author's were accurate in describing years before and after crisis historically and the roles that generations fulfilled in societ 3。5 stars This has been an influential book， especially regarding generational theory。 There's a lot in this book that I appreciated and was impressed with and other parts I thought was superfluous， overreaching or grandiose。 What I liked: the recasting of history and time as cyclical and what impact that has on the perceptions of our society and place。 I thought the author's were accurate in describing years before and after crisis historically and the roles that generations fulfilled in society at the time。 In general， the identifications of a generational persona makes sense， being that the location in time and space are more or less shared by those born during that time and there is a noticable community in this feeling。 They were also incredibly accurate in predicting what crisises could be on the American horizon after 2001。 Fully televised terrorist attack， check。 Housing market collapse/Great Recession， check， culture wars and racial activist demonstrations， check， the election of a divisive president that exposed an already fragile democracy， check， world wide pandemic， check。 What I didn't like: Yet， with this on the nose prediction， overall I was wished that they had not taken such a prophetic tone in the book and made so many definitive statements。 They were also wrong about a lot， particularly， in my opinion about the attitudes of millennials and the mood during this current Crisis。 On the whole， I think their descriptions of generational archetypes were a lot of fitting round pegs into square holes。 Some of it works but it quickly may become confirmation bias， picking and choosing what works for their theory and leaving things out that do not。 （This is the issue with explanatory worldviews and historical theories like theirs。 It's better than a lot of theories in this genre of social history but I think they could have applied a lot more caution and guarded against biases。） The archetypes were the least successful part of their book。 The designations they choose don't make sense all the time。 I understand that they wanted to integrate archetypal theories but there may be have been a better way to do this。 A lot of claims were unsustainable and the history was interesting but not as credible given their propensity to try and fit it on their hypothesis。 Overall: such an incredible theory and to even pick and choose from parts of their books is worth while。 I especially enjoyed the commentary regarding the awakening era， the consciousness revolution of the 60s and 70s although I wish it had been more objective。 Also， I've read from other reviewers that Steve Bannon apparently likes this book and so should be shunned。 I don't evaluate books that way。 There is a conservative leaning in some places but I would say it's more 90s liberalism。 If that matters to you。 Premise: BResearch: A Writing: B- 。。。more
Devan Smith
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I think that this is a very good book， if you take everything with a grain of salt。 Obviously， the predictive power of the theory is not going to be 100%。 There are so many different factors， it is impossible for any single sociological theory to predict everything。 That being said， if you use Strauss-Howe generational theory as a way to understand generations， and generations only， I think that it is incredibly useful。 I think the sins of the father/ sins of the culture theory that they adopt t I think that this is a very good book， if you take everything with a grain of salt。 Obviously， the predictive power of the theory is not going to be 100%。 There are so many different factors， it is impossible for any single sociological theory to predict everything。 That being said， if you use Strauss-Howe generational theory as a way to understand generations， and generations only， I think that it is incredibly useful。 I think the sins of the father/ sins of the culture theory that they adopt to explain how generations behave is quite good。 I am Gen Z。 This book was written in 1997， before I was born。 Even so， I believe the two authors very solidly predict many of the characteristics of my generation。 Not all of them， of course。 It would have been impossible for them to predict how technology would change our society in the 1997 world of dialup Internet。 I think that this book is particularly good when it talks about how the 4 generational archetypes interact。 Not only does this help me understand many of the great works of literature， it also helps me to better understand other generations。 Generally speaking， I don't like Boomers or Millennials。 After reading this book， I better understand why that is。 This book is not the easiest read。 While the information is good and the writing-style is not that dry， it does get repetitive towards the end。 Moreover， the beginning can be a bit of a slog to get through。 All in all， if you use this book to better understand generations and not to try and predict the future of the entire society， I think that you will have a good experience with it。 。。。more
Ben Jones
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